CATCHING UP WITH THE REPUBLICS:
MACEDONIA
MACEDONIA
Me and my crazy thoughts about our former homeland we all loved and cherished and its future
The most war-torn entity to come out of the Yugoslav conflict,looking back at it from this point in time,most people would rather not think of a new state,but rather keep what they have now.Currently BiH is experiencing a high unemployment rate,with frustration over government and the problem of Republika Srpska the country is not looking far better then the state back when it gained independence.What i see as a possible future in BiH is not that bright,sure the country might later apply for EU membership,but certanly wouldn't be accepted before some other major players leave,and it would be more of a move to strengthen the EU by sheer numbers rather than a move to help mend the situation in BiH.As for the ethnic tensions that are still very relevant and present,i see them subsiding a bit,but still,they would be lurking in the shadows,just waiting for their opportunity to pounce and victimise one of the nationalities inhabiting the state.Republika Srpska would still be a thorn in Bosnia's eye,as it covers almost 50% of the land a bit less than half of the population it still would still have a large role to play in international as well as inside politics of the country.BiH might also start to be viewed badly in the eyes of the west,seeing as one of the larger islamic populations of Europe,ISIS might start forcing or spreading propaganda within the country.I'm not talking here that people would go of neccesarily to fight for the organisation in Syria,but rather that it could potentially serve them as a jumping board for some other locations in Europe.Tho such a bad image wouldnt be seen as a threat by Europe but also by the non-islamic peoples that live in the country,which might bring a bit of turmoil in the future.
Slovenia,a country of 2 milion people,an insignificant number whence u compare the to their european union friends.Slovenia's economy boomed after it gained independence,but in the last few years it started stagnating,unemployment started rising,and people took to the streets.After numerous exits of the UK,Denmark and the Netherlands,my next guess would have to be Greece and the Czech Republic(Czechia),i do think Slovenia would follow,a referendum would be organised asking people's opinion on the matter,it would just barely pass the 50% treshold needed.Normally a lot of people would be dissatisfied and would ask ''What is the alternative?'',the republic would still maintain trade and business with Europe,it would not break its cultural and economic ties to Austria,Germany and Italy and Croatia,although they would start trading a bit more with BiH and Serbia.Their poulation would become a bit less homogenous,Slovenia's would fall to the 80%,with increase of the percentage of Bosnians,Croats and Serbs,not a significant increase,but it is no secret that the small country has a higher standard of living which would inspire their southern neighbours to move there.It is also a good thing to mention that about 61% of Slovenians can understand croatian,croatian itself is very Similar to Serbian,which would make a good bridge for the future.Slovenia would still be the very well developed country it is right now,it would be a model for the other yugoslav and balkan nations to look up to.
As far as economy goes i think we all know what will happen,China will take the first spot replacing the US,tho the US,EU and Russia would still be very close in terms of GDP.Group of BRICS will become a very powerfull alliance and would soon help India and Brazil into reaching top rank amond the world powers.In terms of military power,the US would still be the ''top" dog,however Russia would challenge this,threw their operations in Eastern Ukraine and in Syria.Speaking of military conflicts ISIS would be dealt within 10 years,if not sooner,with limited donations and support i think the US and Russia as well as all others opposing them would eliminate them from the power struggle,by the end of the conflict,Syria would have once again become a somewhat stable state,but the forces of Russia and the US and NATO forces would linger the area for quite some time,the conflict wouldn't have much influence for now on our future state,but the one thing the conflict would have managed to do,it is to challenge US's position,as top dog on the world stage.Moving on to the conflicts in Ukraine,Crimea already being annexed will not be covered,but the future of east ukranian pro-russian republics would depend on both Russian and Western willinges to fund their allies in that conflict,personally i'm not really sure what to think,the republics might stay independepnt or join Russia,i don't think they would rejoin Ukraine in any form tho,but again,it would prove that Russia is trying to catch up to the US in terms of power on the world stage.And finally Europe,how i see it,it would be the main player in the future of Yugoslavia,as we know Slovenia and Croatia already joined,Serbia,Montenegro,Macedonia are on their ways of negotiating a membership and BiH still not applied.in order for my scenario to work i don't hope for this,but i think that if the UK is to leave the EU it would create a very early,but a good precedent for the creation for our future nation.So as UK leaves the EU i imagine others would follow,countries like Denmark and Netherlands,the EU would be crippled,with the sitation in Greece the economy would have a tough time to recover,especially of the newly added Croatia and other east european members like Bulgaria and Romania.Serbia's accesion to the EU would stall due to problems with compatability,such thing would also happen with Macedonia,Montengro would after some time be allowed to join the Union.Instead,as alraedy hinted Serbia might turn to Russia and China as close allies,seeing the long history with Russia and a new business venture and visit from the president of China,Serbia might turn its back on the EU.Also,I have not forgotten about the Serbia-Kosovo relations,with talks on creating a Serb autonomous union in Kosovo already under planning it seems that the small republic would gain independence,but i think it is far from it.With multiple problems of high-unemployment,brain-drainage and crime rate there would still be a milion questions to settle on,before the country could manage it self.Also before ISIS would be taken down i do suspect that at is already going on,some people of Islamic faith would go of to fight for the organisation from Kosovo,BiH,Serbia,Montenegro and Macedonia.That is all i think we should have covered in this brief statement,if you think i missed anything be sure to send me a message and i'll try and include it,in some future article.